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Studio 64
Industry Analyst Visionaries
Jean Bozman, IDC
Nathan Brookwood, Insight64
Gaurav Dua, Industry Analyst- Technology Practice, Frost & Sullivan, India
Matthew Eastwood, Research Director, Global Enterprise Server Solution, IDC
John Enck, Vice President, Gartner
Mike Feibus, TechKnowledge Strategies
Gordon Haff, Senior Analyst/IT Advisor, Illuminata
Carl Howe, Principal, Blackfriars Communication, Inc.
Peter Kastner, Executive Vice President, Aberdeen Group
Roger Kay, IDC
Kevin Krewell, MDR
David Larsson, IT Research, Sweden
Kathleen Maher, Vice President, Jon Peddie Research
Dean McCarron, Mercury Research
Mark Melenovsky, Director, Server Market Research, IDC
Brian Richardson, META Group

Studio 64
Industry Analyst Visionaries

Jean Bozman
Research VP, IDC

“Let me make clear that 64-bit computing has been around for quite some time now, and in fact the whole UNIX RISC area already is 64-bit capable. We see it being used particularly for handling large, scalable databases, data mining, data warehousing, high-performance computing, using large datasets associated with scientific computing, visualization. One of the new areas that we see adoption in, is this bio IT area, life sciences, a lot of adoption there, again, mostly in the UNIX space. What we were talking about today is, is there the potentiality that that would get broader, in other words, broaden out to a space where other types of servers would become involved. And clearly we think that will happen over time. It won’t happen overnight, but we think that certainly everybody has their sights on 64-bit computing, and that in fact there might be some new types of applications that would get into the 64-bit space, mostly having to do with handling large chunks of data. And some of them might be, for example, multimedia, video, music, handling all those, and the new and emerging area of web services, in which people are using maybe a PDA or something and looking at that, but are receiving very complex information over the Internet. Now a number of things have to come together as that happens. More bandwidth. More use of PDAs. Some sophistication at the back end, and that’s where we’re going to see more 64-bit computing, to support those services.”

   
   
   

Nathan Brookwood
Principal, Insight64

"Today the 64-bit market is dominated by high-end proprietary systems. This will change dramatically over the remainder of the decade. Industry-standard 64-bit architectures will move down to the low-end of the market and up into the mid-range and high-end segments as well. The people who understand this, and who adapt their applications for these industry standard 64-bit boxes, will win big-time when these systems become available. The folks who ignore this trend and continue to focus their efforts on proprietary platforms will soon be in trouble, if they’re not there already." more...

   
   
   

Gaurav Dua
Industry Analyst- Technology Practice, Frost & Sullivan, India

"In the next two to three years, one will witness a large set of enterprises going in for 64-bit systems as it offers superior performance in terms of scalability, power and reliability. A 64-bit machine can significantly increase the performance as it can address more memory directly without using complex indexing or register-addressing schemes. Moreover, a 64-bit system is likely to gain lot of acceptance in applications that require large data stores. This would include applications such as CAD/CAM, OLAP, financial modeling, et al."

   
   
   
Matthew Eastwood
Research Director, Global Enterprise Server Solution, IDC

“IDC's workloads research has consistently shown that many customers continue to deploy database solutions in 32-bit computing environments. Oracle's support of the AMD Opteron processor will allow customers to gain additional headroom for these databases without moving off platform. This approach offers tremendous advantages for many customers faced with expensive database conversions.”

   
   
   

Jonh Enck
Vice President, Gartner

"64-bit systems have been around for a while. I think the transition for pervasive 64-bit computing is going to take some time. I think the server side of the market is well familiar with this technology, well familiar with the promises that 64-bit brings to the market. I think the trick is on a desktop, in that segment of the market, this is going to be a big change for them. These are going to be systems that are vastly more powerful than they are used to. So there will be some new applications, new capabilities. So it will certainly spur some new usage models." more...

   
   
   
Mike Feibus
Principal Analyst, TechKnowledge Strategies, Inc.

"I believe that 64-bit technology will bring new and exciting opportunities to the mainstream market. Once you give millions of mainstream users the power to address such large datasets, then the applications are sure to follow."
   
   
   
Gordon Haff
Senior Analyst/IT Advisor, Illuminata

“Financial services is certainly one market that is likely to adopt [64-bit technology] fairly quickly. Financial services, in the last few years, have been the commercial users among the most open to new technologies. IT is the core of their business and the ability to crunch data and to glean information from that data is really core to their business.” more...
   
   
   

Carl D. Howe
Principal, Blackfriars Communications, Inc.

"Sixty four-bit computing brings something new to a stagnant PC market: simplicity. How will it do this? By:

1) Simplifying the use of large memories. Today’s 32-bit PC programs typically can’t use more than 2 gigabytes of main memory, yet someone editing raw digital photographs in Photoshop can easily consume all that and more. And applications like video editing of a two-hour digital video movie need a minimum of 26 gigabytes just to store the movie. Memories of 32 gigabytes and more would make these programs run faster and easier to debug -- and yet cost only about $3,000 at today’s prices.

2) Simplifying programming. Today, PC programmers must jump through hoops to perform seemingly simple operations like creating a report for a database or writing a DVD-R disk. Why? Because they spend most of their time figuring out how to shuttle information on and off slow disks, the only PC storage big enough to store databases or DVD images. 64-bit processors allow programmers to write these pieces of software as simple queries and copies -- and make them faster and more reliable to boot.

3) Simplifying innovation. Just as it’s easier to build a highway through an unpopulated countryside than through a city, 64-bit computing poses fewer obstacles to creating the next killer application. Prior to 32-bit processors, Microsoft® and Windows® never had the type of market power they do today. 64-bit computing will similarly propel other small companies to stardom as they make things considered impossible today possible.”

   
   
   
Peter Kastner
Executive Vice President, Aberdeen Group

“The first 32-bit consumer desktops appeared in 1985 when the software world was mired in the world of 16-bit DOS operating systems and applications. Except for the few hardy souls who used 32-bit Xenix (and later Unix variants Unix) applications, the rest of us waited until Windows XP was launched in October 2000 to end the legacy ties to 16-bit software. That’s a long time — fifteen years before the software caught up with the hardware. That won’t happen again to the computer industry. Aberdeen Group expects 64-bit operating support for consumer desktops to arrive over the next year. Early adopters will enjoy some exciting experiences.

Hard as it is to imagine, the majority of the consumer market for 64-bit computing will arrive at the end of the decade. The key reason is memory.

Today’s mainstream 32-bit desktops barely run in 128 MB of RAM, perform adequately at 256 MB, and can run virtually all applications with 512 MB of memory. With declining memory prices, more operating system features, the proliferation of web services, more powerful processors, we see typical memory configurations doubling every three years for the rest of the decade. With processor speeds at 10 GHz and above, the penalty for a disk access will be enormous; so much more data will be cached in memory. The tipping point is in the 2-4 GB area, when traditional 32-bit addressing runs out of bits. We expect mainstream desktops to need full 64-bit addressability of RAM by 2010. Many users will want their virtual memory disk space to exceed 4 GB before 2010. So start planning for your own cinema-realistic 3D user environment now.”

   
   
   
Roger Kay
Director of Client Computing, IDC

"Aside from the fact that you can address more mathematical space with 64-bit systems, they also give you greater performance. With 64-bit systems, things like weather forecasting are possible. For consumers, gamers enjoy increased performance on 3D applications. In the commercial space, they gain faster execution of existing programs."

   
   
   
Kevin Krewell
General manager, MDR, Senior Editor, Microprocessor Report

“The 64-bit processor question is not if, but when? The 32-bit x86 architecture we have today is the based on the 80386 processor introduced in 1985. After 18 years, it’s time to evolve to the next era in client computing—64-bit processing. We can begin to conjecture how programmers will use this new freedom, as 64-bit processing facilitates processing of large databases, bigger CAD models, faster data encryption for Internet security, larger media files, expanded rules for speech recognition algorithms (allowing greater accuracy), and additional caching of data and programs for snappier performance.” -- Kevin Krewell, general manager, MDR, senior editor, Microprocessor Report
   
   
   
David Larsson
Market Analyst, IT Research, Sweden

"64-bitars marknaden tar nu fart på allvar. De kommande AMD processorbaserade produkterna har goda möjligheter att ta andelar med ett bra pris/prestanda", säger David Larsson, marknadsanalytiker, IT Research.

“The 64-bit market is really taking off now seriously. The upcoming AMD processor-based products have a good possibility to take market shares with a good price/performance ratio”, says David Larsson, market analyst, IT Research.

   
   
   
Kathleen Maher
Vice President, Jon Peddie Research

"64-bit computing, it's the future. AMD has taken the initiative to push 64-bit into the mainstream and has reset the clock for the transition... AMD has excelled in creating a demand for the near(er) future."
   
   
   

Dean McCarron
Founder and Principal, Mercury Research

"The barriers that 64-bit computing can overcome relate to things such as memory addressing. The current 32-bit architectures are limited to 4 gigabytes. 64-bit architectures essentially eliminate any barriers to memory addressing for the foreseeable future." more...

   
   
   

Brian Richardson
Program Director, META Group

"I think we've had 64-bit computing in niche markets for more than ten years. What I see coming is more of a mass market potential to begin accelerating a transition to 64-bit enabled applications, to really take advantage of things like very large memory spaces, very sophisticated modeling and simulation in technical computing environments, and extremely high performance in database and data warehousing capabilities not only for government and research capabilities and very high-end corporate environments, but really more 64-bit computing that is more mainstream."

   
   
   
 

Mark Melenovsky
Director, Server Market Research, IDC

“I think it’s more than performance. Like I just mentioned, it's the way that IT and data is becoming so pervasive throughout the industry that it's going to require 64-bit computing just to be able to integrate your businesses, your databases, and your supply chain management, and all of these different functionalities. So it's a requirement.” more...




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